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India 2020

Energy Policy Review

India 2020

Energy Policy Review

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The IEA examines	IEA member	IEA association
the full spectrum	countries:	countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas	Australia	Brazil
and coal supply and	Austria	China
demand, renewable	Belgium	India
energy technologies,	Canada	Indonesia
electricity markets,	Czech Republic	Morocco
energy efficiency,	Denmark	Singapore
access to energy,	Estonia	South Africa
demand side	Finland	Thailand
management and	France
much more. Through	Germany
its work, the IEA	Greece
advocates policies	Hungary
that will enhance	Ireland
the reliability,	Italy
affordability and	Japan
sustainability of	Korea
energy in its 30	Luxembourg
member countries,	Mexico
8 association	Netherlands
countries and	New Zealand
beyond.	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Slovak Republic
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Turkey
	United Kingdom
	United States
	The European
	Commission also
	participates in the
	work of the IEA

Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/

International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org

Foreword

India’s achievements in the energy sector in recent years have been outstanding. Led by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and his ministers, the Government of India is implementing reforms towards a secure, affordable and sustainable energy system to power a robust economic growth.

The country has made huge strides to ensure full access to electricity, bringing power to more than 700 million people since 2000. It is pursuing a very ambitious deployment of renewable energy, notably solar, and has boosted energy efficiency through innovative programmes such as replacing incandescent light bulbs with LEDs (under the Ujala scheme). And it is addressing the serious health problems caused by air pollution for its major cities, providing 80 million households with liquefied petroleum gas connection (under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana scheme), thereby reducing the exposure from biomass cooking stoves, a major cause of respiratory diseases.

India is also introducing important energy pricing reforms in the coal, oil, gas, and electricity sectors which are fundamental to further opening the energy market and improving its financial health. It is taking significant steps to enhance its energy security by fostering domestic production through the most significant upstream reform of India's Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP) and building up dedicated oil emergency stocks in the form of a strategic petroleum reserve. The scale of these achievements is hard to overstate.

Building on co-operation that goes back to 1998, India joined the IEA family in March 2017 when it became an Association member, a major milestone in our bilateral collaboration. This relationship has flourished since then with co-operation across all energy sector-related ministries. The IEA benefits greatly from this partnership given India’s importance in global energy markets and the remarkable insights it provides to other IEA members.

The IEA has been conducting in-depth peer reviews of its member countries’ energy policies since 1976. As the IEA opens its doors to emerging economies, our in-depth policy review process is playing a bigger role in our bilateral collaboration with Association countries, and draws upon the unique expertise of the IEA family at large. In January 2019, a team of senior international energy experts visited India to discuss the challenges and opportunities of India’s energy sector with stakeholders from government, industry and academia. This report is the product of those discussions and intensive exchanges between the IEA, the review team and the Indian government throughout the year. This review for India provides a crosscutting overview of India’s energy policy and real-world policy advice and makes recommendations for all areas of India’s energy sector.

I would like to thank the Government of India, notably NITI Aayog CEO Mr Amitabh Kant and his team for the excellent collaboration on this project. My gratitude goes to Ambassador Noé van Hulst from the Netherlands, for leading this review, and to the peers from Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Commission.

FOREWORD

Reports like this in-depth review highlight India’s excellent achievements and best practices, while at the same time guiding India in its ambitious energy transition, supporting energy policy development, and learning from international experience. I look forward to working even more closely with the Government of India and supporting them in taking their energy policy forward.

Dr. Fatih Birol

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

ENERGY INSIGHTS
1. Executive summary.....................................................................................................	13
India is making great strides towards affordable, secure and cleaner energy.................	13
Major energy reforms lead to greater efficiency.............................................................	13
India is making energy security a priority.......................................................................	14
Significant progress in sustainable development ...........................................................	15
Energy technology and innovation enables “Make in India” ...........................................	17
Key recommendations ..................................................................................................	18
2. General energy policy.................................................................................................	19
Country overview ..........................................................................................................	19
Major energy supply and demand trends.......................................................................	20
Energy consumption .....................................................................................................	21
Political system and energy sector governance.............................................................	26
Governance of public companies in the energy sector...................................................	28
Economy and the energy sector....................................................................................	30
Energy and climate policy .............................................................................................	33
Energy taxation and subsidies.......................................................................................	35
Energy data and statistics in India.................................................................................	37
Assessment ..................................................................................................................	38
Recommendations ........................................................................................................	43
ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
3. Energy and sustainable development.......................................................................	45
Overview.......................................................................................................................	45
Energy, environment and sustainable development: An integrated policy response in the
context of SDGs............................................................................................................	46
Assessment ..................................................................................................................	69
Recommendations ........................................................................................................	73
4. Energy efficiency.........................................................................................................	77
Overview.......................................................................................................................	77
Supply and demand trends ...........................................................................................	79
Energy consumption by sector ......................................................................................	79
Policy framework and institutions ..................................................................................	86

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Policies and programmes..............................................................................................	87
Assessment ..................................................................................................................	94
Recommendations ......................................................................................................	101
5. Renewable energy....................................................................................................	107
Overview.....................................................................................................................	107
Supply and demand trends .........................................................................................	108
Institutions...................................................................................................................	110
Policy and regulation...................................................................................................	111
Assessment ................................................................................................................	120
Recommendations ......................................................................................................	125
6. Energy technology innovation................................................................................	129
Overview.....................................................................................................................	129
Energy technology RD&D and innovation policies .......................................................	130
Energy technology RD&D landscape ..........................................................................	131
International collaboration ...........................................................................................	139
Assessment framework...............................................................................................	141
Assessment ................................................................................................................	143
Recommendations ......................................................................................................	146
ENERGY SECURITY
7. Electricity...................................................................................................................	151
Overview.....................................................................................................................	151
Supply and demand trends .........................................................................................	152
Electricity access ........................................................................................................	156
Institutions...................................................................................................................	157
Market structure ..........................................................................................................	158
Power market reforms.................................................................................................	160
Assessment framework...............................................................................................	162
A. India’s power system transformation ...................................................................	162
B. Electricity markets to maximise investments and consumer outcomes ..................	166
C. Ensure power system security .............................................................................	181
Assessment ................................................................................................................	188
Recommendations ......................................................................................................	192

			TABLE OF CONTENTS
8. System integration of variable renewable energy			................................................ 195
Overview.....................................................................................................................			195
Supply and demand trends .........................................................................................			196
General considerations for system integration.............................................................			201
System operation and electricity markets ....................................................................			203
Flexibility resources in India ........................................................................................			209
IEA flexibility analysis – A scenario outlook to 2040 ....................................................			221
Assessment ................................................................................................................			221
Recommendations ......................................................................................................			224
9. Coal ............................................................................................................................			229
Overview.....................................................................................................................			229
Supply and demand ....................................................................................................			231
Institutional framework ................................................................................................			235
Government policies ...................................................................................................			237
Assessment ................................................................................................................			244
Recommendations ......................................................................................................			247
10. Oil .............................................................................................................................			249
Overview.....................................................................................................................			249
Supply and demand ....................................................................................................			250
Institutions...................................................................................................................			257
Retail market and prices..............................................................................................			257
Upstream: Exploration and production policies............................................................			259
Infrastructure...............................................................................................................			260
Security of supply........................................................................................................			264
Assessment ................................................................................................................			266
Recommendations ......................................................................................................			268
11. Natural gas ..............................................................................................................			271
Overview.....................................................................................................................			271
Supply and demand ....................................................................................................			272
Gas production and reserves ......................................................................................			274
Institutions...................................................................................................................			275
Gas infrastructure .......................................................................................................			276
Gas policy...................................................................................................................			277
Markets and regulation................................................................................................			278
Security of gas supply .................................................................................................			281

7

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Assessment ................................................................................................................		285
Recommendations ......................................................................................................		287
ANNEXES
ANNEX A: Organisations visited .................................................................................		289
ANNEX B: Energy balances and key statistical data....................................................		293
ANNEX C: Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure..........................................		297
LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES
Figures
2.1	Overview of India’s energy system by fuel and sector, 2017 ................................	20
2.2	Trends in the growth of the economy, population and energy indicators...............	21
2.3	TFC by sector, 1973-2017 ...................................................................................	21
2.4	TFC by source and sector, 2017..........................................................................	22
2.5	TPES by source, 1973-2017................................................................................	23
2.6	Energy production by source, 1974-2017.............................................................	23
2.7	Import dependencies for different energy sources in TPES, 2007-17...................	24
2.8	Change in TPES 2007-17 by GDP per capita 2016, G20 countries......................	24
2.9	TPES by country, G20 countries, 2007 and 2017.................................................	25
2.10	TPES by fuel, G20 countries, 2017......................................................................	25
2.11	Main institutions involved in energy policy making in India ...................................	27

3.1Contribution of sustainable development policies towards air pollutant emissions

reductions in India ...............................................................................................	47
3.2 Proportion of population with access to electricity, 2000-30 .................................	49

3.3Modern renewables and renewables including traditional biomass, share of TFC,

	2000-30 ...............................................................................................................	50
3.4	Energy intensity (TPES/GDP) in India, the region and the world ..........................	51
3.5	Average annual outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations in selected urban areas, year.....	52

3.6Energy-related emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOX and PM 2.5) by sector,

2018 ....................................................................................................................	54
3.7 Emissions of major air pollutants, 2018 and 2040 (NPS)......................................	58

3.8Industrial emissions of major air pollutants and fuel mix in industry, 2015 and 2040

	(NPS) ..................................................................................................................			60
3.9	Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers, 2000-17 ...................................			60
3.10	CO2 intensity of India and IEA member countries, 2017.......................................			61
3.11	CO2 emissions per capita in India and IEA member countries, 2017 ....................			62
3.12	Energy-related CO	emissions by source, historical and NPS projections
3.12	for 2030 and 2040			62
3.13	Energy-related CO	emissions by sector, historical and NPS projections
3.13	for 2030 and 2040			63
3.14	Electricity generation by source in India, historical and projected (STEPS) ..........			63
			8

		TABLE OF CONTENTS
4.1	Composition of energy demand, 2000 and 2018..................................................	78
4.2	Energy TFC and drivers, 2000-17........................................................................	79
4.3	Energy TFC by sector, 2000-17 ...........................................................................	80
4.4	Energy TFC in industry by source, 2000-17 .........................................................	80
4.5	Energy consumption in manufacturing industry sectors, 2017..............................	81

4.6Residential sector energy consumption by source, 2017, and growth in electricity

	and oil, 2000-17...................................................................................................	83
4.7	Energy consumption for transport by mode and fuel, 2017...................................	84
4.8	Energy intensity by transport mode, 2017 ............................................................	85

4.9Evolution of passenger and freight rail transport activity and share of transport

	sector in India, 2000-2017 ...................................................................................	86
4.10	Key institutions involved in energy efficiency policy making and implementation..	87
4.11	Energy savings and associated benefits of rail by 2050 .......................................	94
5.1	Share of renewable energy in TPES, electricity and TFC, 1977-2017 ................	108
5.2	Renewable energy and waste in TPES, 1973-2017 ...........................................	109
5.3	Renewable energy and waste in electricity generation, 1990-2017 ....................	110
5.4	Auction volumes and prices, 2010-19 ................................................................	113

5.5Solar PV capacity needed to reach 2022 targets and financial health

	of DISCOMs by state, July 2018 ........................................................................	115
5.6	Role of solar parks in utility-scale solar PV project development ........................	118
5.7	National biofuels policy, 2018 ............................................................................	119
6.1	Evolution of global energy RD&D public spending by region or country .............	136
6.2	Early-stage venture capital investment in energy technology .............................	137
7.1	Electricity overview – power generation by source, 2017 ...................................	152
7.2	Electricity generation by source, 1973-2017.......................................................	153
7.3	Electricity generation by state, 2018 ..................................................................	154
7.4	Electricity TFC by sector, 1973-2017 .................................................................	155
7.5	Evolution of per capita electricity demand in selected markets, 2007-17 ............	156

7.6Evolution of per capita electricity demand in India and selected countries, ..............

2008-17 .............................................................................................................

156

7.7International comparison of populations without energy access,

	1985-2018 (million people) ................................................................................	157
7.8	Structure of India’s power sector........................................................................	158
7.9	Electricity generation by fuel in G20 countries, 2017..........................................	163
7.10	CO2 emissions intensity of power generation (including co-generation) in India,
	China, the IEA and the world, 1990-2017...........................................................	164
7.11	India’s power dispatch and scheduling...............................................................	167
7.12	Trading volumes and prices at the IEX...............................................................	168
7.13	Volume of electricity traded................................................................................	168
7.14	Power sector investment, 2010-18.....................................................................	172
7.15	Plant load factor of thermal generating stations (hard coal and lignite)...............	173
7.16	Performance of India’s DISCOMs ......................................................................	175
7.17	Residential electricity prices in India and selected countries, 2007-15................	179
7.18	Reliability of power generation, 1992-2017 ........................................................	181
7.19	Reliability by region, 2017/18 versus 2016/17) (%) ............................................	182
7.20	Frequency deviation, 1998-2018........................................................................	182
7.21	Annual completion of new transmission lines.....................................................	185

8.1VRE electricity generation by source and by share of total generation,

2001-17 .............................................................................................................

196

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.2Electricity generation from VRE sources as a percentage of all generation, India

and IEA member countries, 2017.......................................................................

197

8.3Electricity generation from VRE as a percentage of all generation in VRE-rich

Indian states, 2017/18 .......................................................................................

197

8.4Key characteristics and challenges in the different phases of system

integration of VRE .............................................................................................

198

8.5Overview of VRE system integration phases for selected countries and regions,

2017 ..................................................................................................................

199

8.6VRE share of installed capacity and annual generation, top 10 VRE generating

	states grouped by system integration phase, 2018 ............................................	200
8.7	Integrating large shares of VRE requires system transformation ........................	203
8.8	Structure of the power system operational structure ..........................................	204

8.9Average tariffs awarded to projects in different solar parks under the solar park

	policy.................................................................................................................	214
8.10	End-user electricity prices for different regions, 2015.........................................	216
9.1	Role of coal in energy supply and power generation, 1971-2017 .......................	229
9.2	Coal supply by source, 1973-2017.....................................................................	232
9.3	India’s coal imports by source, 2007-17.............................................................	233
9.4	Coal consumption by sector, 1973-2017............................................................	234
9.5	Transport of bulk commodities by Indian Railways, 2017 ...................................	238
10.1	Share of oil in the energy system, 1977-2017 ....................................................	249
10.2	Domestic oil production, 2008-18.......................................................................	251
10.3	Refinery outputs, 2012-18..................................................................................	251
10.4	Oil consumption by sector, 2007-17...................................................................	252
10.5	Oil demand by product, 2008-18........................................................................	255
10.6	Crude oil imports by country, 2013-17 ...............................................................	256
10.7	Imports (left) and exports (right) by share of refined oil products, 2018 ..............	256
10.8	Gasoline and diesel prices in India and China, 2003-18.....................................	258
11.1	Share of natural gas in the energy system, 1977-2017 ......................................	272
11.2	Natural gas supply by source, 1973-2017 ..........................................................	272
11.3	Natural gas imports into India by country of origin, 2003-17 ...............................	273
11.4	Gas consumption by consuming sector, 1973-2017...........................................	274
11.5	Natural gas production by type, 2011-18............................................................	275
11.6	Market reform in the gas sector .........................................................................	280
11.7	Security of supply position of India in the globalising LNG market, 2018 ............	282
Tables
2.1	Top-performing profit-making PSUs in India.........................................................	29

2.2Key financial indicators of PSUs vs private companies in the power sector,

	2017/18 ...............................................................................................................	29
4.1	Energy intensity indicators across cement, steel and aluminium ..........................	82
5.1	Risks and risk management for renewable investment in India ..........................	117
6.1	India’s public sector institutional landscape for energy RD&D ............................	131
6.2	Clean energy RD&D spending in India (INR crores unless specified).................	135
7.1	Evolution of installed capacity by fuel, 2013-18 (MW) ........................................	154
7.2	Operating and under-construction nuclear power plants in India ........................	165
7.3.	Progress on DISCOM losses – UDAY scheme ..................................................	177

	10

	TABLE OF CONTENTS
7.4	Consumer average revenue per unit (INR/kwh), 2015/16...................................	180
8.1	VRE capacity, generation and percentage share, VRE-rich states, 2018 ...........	201
8.2	REMC tools and functions .................................................................................	206
8.3	PSH capacity (≥ 25 MW), 2019..........................................................................	217
9.1	Plants designed to consume imported coal........................................................	234
10.1	Refinery capacity, 2018 .....................................................................................	261
10.2	Strategic petroleum reserves .............................................................................	263
11.1	Projected natural gas production (bcm)..............................................................	275
11.2	Operational and under-development LNG terminals ..........................................	276
Boxes
3.1	Benefits of an integrated energy sector response to sustainable development.....	47
3.2	A brief history of environmental laws and courts in India ......................................	55
6.1	Case-study • Public–private innovation partnership in advanced biofuels...........	138

6.2Case-study • Government support for MI Champions fostering clean

	energy access in rural India ...............................................................................	140
6.3	Components of an effective innovation ecosystem.............................................	141
7.1	International experience – Nord Pool .................................................................	170
7.2	A government package for stressed assets........................................................	174
7.3	Principles of functioning retail markets...............................................................	176
7.4	The 2012 India blackout ....................................................................................	183
7.5	Cooling demand ................................................................................................	184
7.5	Monitoring and implementing quality of supply rules ..........................................	186
8.1	Power system flexibility in India in 2040.............................................................	219
10.1	New policy measures to promote oil and gas E&P activities, 2019.....................	260
10.2	The IEA oil stockholding mechanisms................................................................	264
11.1	Gas demand increases in Gujarat......................................................................	278
11.2	International experience – gas reserves.............................................................	284

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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