- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of tables
- •List of boxes
- •Executive summary
- •Absent a change in course, ammonia production would continue to take an environmental toll
- •Towards more sustainable ammonia production
- •Near-zero-emission ammonia production requires new infrastructure, innovation and investment
- •Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •Chapter 1. Ammonia production today
- •Ammonia and society
- •Nitrogen fertilisers: An indispensable input to our modern agricultural systems
- •Demand, supply and trade
- •Ammonia production fundamentals
- •Current and emerging production pathways
- •A brief history of ammonia production
- •Natural gas reforming
- •Coal gasification
- •Near-zero-emission production routes currently being pursued
- •Economic considerations
- •Ammonia and the environment
- •Non-CO2 environmental impacts
- •Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production and use
- •Impacts on water, soil, air and ecosystems
- •What will happen tomorrow to today’s CO2 emissions from ammonia production?
- •Chapter 2. The future of ammonia production
- •Three contrasting futures for the ammonia industry
- •The outlook for demand and production
- •The outlook for nitrogen demand, nutrient use efficiency and material efficiency
- •Nitrogen demand drivers
- •Measures to improve nitrogen use efficiency
- •The outlook for production
- •Technology pathways towards net zero emissions
- •Energy consumption and CO2 emissions
- •A portfolio of mitigation options
- •Innovative technology pathways
- •Overview of global and regional technology trends
- •China
- •India
- •North America
- •Europe
- •Other key regions
- •Considerations for the main innovative technologies
- •Dedicated VRE electrolysis
- •CCUS-equipped pathways
- •Readiness, competitiveness and investment
- •An array of technology options at differing levels of maturity
- •Exploring key uncertainties
- •Future production costs
- •Uncertainty in technology innovation
- •Investment
- •Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •The current policy, innovation and financing landscape
- •Ongoing efforts by governments
- •Carbon pricing and energy efficiency measures
- •Support for near-zero-emission technology RD&D and early commercial deployment
- •Policies for improving efficiency of use
- •International collaboration
- •Encouraging progress in the private sector
- •Initiatives involving financial institutions and investors
- •Recommendations for accelerating progress
- •Framework fundamentals
- •Establishing plans and policy for long-term CO2 emission reductions
- •Mobilising finance and investment
- •Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies
- •Managing existing assets and near-term investment
- •Creating a market for near-zero-emission nitrogen products
- •Developing earlier-stage near-zero-emission technologies
- •Improving use efficiency for ammonia-base products
- •Necessary enabling conditions
- •Enhancing international co-operation and creating a level playing field
- •Planning and developing infrastructure
- •Tracking progress and improving data
- •Key milestones and decision points
- •Annexes
- •Abbreviations
- •Units of measure
Ammonia Technology
Roadmap
Towards more sustainable nitrogen
fertiliser production
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Abstract |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
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Abstract
Ammonia is the starting point for all mineral nitrogen fertilisers, forming a bridge between the nitrogen in the air and the food we eat. Around 70% of ammonia is used to make fertilisers, with the remainder used for a wide range of industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives and synthetic fibres. Ammonia may also serve as a low-carbon energy vector in the future, but that application is not considered within the core analytical scope of this technology roadmap. Ammonia production accounts for around 2% of total final energy consumption and 1.3% of CO2 emissions from the energy system. An increasingly numerous and affluent global population will lead to growth in ammonia production, during a period in which governments around the world have declared that emissions from the energy system must head towards net zero.
This technology roadmap uses scenario analysis to explore three possible futures for ammonia production. In the Stated Policies Scenario the industry follows current trends, making incremental improvements but falling well short of a sustainable trajectory. In the Sustainable Development Scenario the sector adopts the technologies and policies required to put it on a pathway aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario describes a trajectory for the ammonia industry that is compatible with reaching net zero emissions globally for the energy system by 2050. The roadmap concludes with a chapter outlining the necessary roles and actions of key stakeholders, namely governments, producers, and financial and research institutions, and establishes milestones and decision points.
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Acknowledgements |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
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Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy Division within the Directorate on Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division). The analysis and production was co-ordinated by Araceli Fernández Pales (Head of the Technology Innovation Unit) and Peter Levi. The main authors were Sara Budinis, Alexandre Gouy, Peter Levi, Hana Mandová and Tiffany Vass.
Several colleagues across the agency contributed analytical input, including Julien Armijo, Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez, Tomás de Oliveira Bredariol, Uwe Remme and Jacopo Tattini. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by IEA senior management and other colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Tanguy de Bienassis, Ilkka Hannula, Paul Hugues and Keisuke Sadamori. Thanks also go to Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdem, Grace Gordon, Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Rob Stone, Julie Puech, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang of the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report. Caroline Abettan, Reka Koczka, Diana Louis and Per-Anders Widell provided essential support.
Justin French-Brooks carried responsibility for editing.
The work could not have been undertaken without the financial support provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development via the Shareholder Special Fund.
The International Fertilizer Association and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development provided valuable feedback and support throughout the project, in particular by facilitating communication with fertiliser companies and other experts, including at multiple in-person and online workshops. They also provided analytical feedback during the modelling phase and submitted detailed comments during the peer review process.
Many experts from outside the IEA reviewed the report and provided comments and suggestions of great value. They include:
Walid |
Abdou |
Abu Qir |
Yasser |
Abdulrahim Alabbasi |
Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company |
Blake |
Adair |
Nutrien |
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Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Acknowledgements |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
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Mohamed |
Ali |
Arab Fertilizer Association |
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Saleem |
Ali |
United Nations Environment Programme |
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Volker |
Andresen |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Florian |
Ausfelder |
DECHEMA |
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Frank |
Brentrup |
Yara International |
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Jonathan |
Brooks |
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and |
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Development |
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Trevor |
Brown |
Ammonia Energy Association |
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Tom |
Bruulsema |
Plant Nutrition Canada |
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Shawn |
Carnine |
CF Industries |
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Lucia |
Castillo Nieto |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Ciniro |
Costa Junior |
Institute for Forestry and Agricultural Management and |
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Certification |
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Laura |
Cross |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Jacky |
de Letter |
Yara |
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Jose |
De Sousa |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Rebecca |
Dell |
ClimateWorks Foundation |
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Alexander |
Derricott |
CRU |
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Achim |
Dobermann |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Harrie |
Duisters |
OCI |
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Ermanno |
Filippi |
Casale Group |
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Nicolo |
Giachino |
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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Guillaume |
Gruère |
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and |
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Development (OECD) |
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Santiago |
Guerrero |
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and |
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Pat |
Han |
Haldor Topsoe |
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Yvonne |
Harz-Pitre |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Oliver |
Hatfield |
Argus Media |
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Patrick |
Heffer |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Julian |
Hilton |
Aleff Group |
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Peter |
Hirsch |
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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Sjoerd |
Jenneskens |
OCI |
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Glyn |
Johnson |
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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Rita |
Jupe |
International Fertilizer Association |
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David |
Kanter |
New York University |
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K K |
Kaul |
DCM Shriram |
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Alzbeta |
Klein |
International Fertilizer Association |
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Trine |
Kopperud |
Yara |
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Dimitri |
Koufos |
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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Timothy |
Lewis |
AngloAmerican |
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Lavan |
Mahadeva |
CRU |
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Gianpiero |
Nacci |
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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Sachchida |
Nand |
The Fertiliser Association of India |
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Klaus |
Nolker |
Thyssenkrupp |
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Jan-Japp |
Nusselder |
OCI |
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Cedric |
Philibert |
Former IEA |
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Asim |
Qureshi |
Engro |
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Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Acknowledgements |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
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Praveen |
Reddy |
BD Energy Systems |
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Lorenzo |
Rosa |
University of California, Berkeley |
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Khurram |
Saleem |
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited |
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Ahmed |
Shaaban |
Helwan Fertilizers Company |
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Marina |
Simonova |
IHS Markit |
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Upendra |
Singh |
International Fertilizer Development Center |
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Michiel |
Stork |
Guidehouse |
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Sammy |
Van Den Broeck |
Yara |
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Wilfried |
Winiwarter |
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
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Xin |
Zhang |
University of Maryland Center for Environmental |
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Science |
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The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. The views expressed in the study are not necessarily views of the IEA’s member countries or of any particular funder or collaborator. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.
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IEA. All rights reserved.