01 POWER ISLAND / 02 H2+NH3 / IEA 2022 NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector
.pdftechnologies, the extent to which citizens are able or willing to change behaviour, the availability of sustainable bioenergy and the extent and effectiveness of international collaboration. We investigate some of the key alternatives and uncertainties here and in Chapter 3. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario is built on the following principles.
The uptake of all the available technologies and emissions reduction options is dictated by costs, technology maturity, policy preferences, and market and country conditions.
All countries co operate towards achieving net zero emissions worldwide. This involves all countries participating in efforts to meet the net zero goal, working together in an effective and mutually beneficial way, and recognising the different stages of economic development of countries and regions, and the importance of ensuring a just transition.
An orderly transition across the energy sector. This includes ensuring the security of fuel and electricity supplies at all times, minimising stranded assets where possible and aiming to avoid volatility in energy markets.
2.2.1Population and GDP
The energy sector transformation in the NZE occurs against the backdrop of large increases in the world’s population and economy (Figure 2.1). In 2020, there were around 7.8 billion people in the world; this is projected to increase by around 750 million by 2030 and by nearly 2 billion people by 2050 in line with the median variant of the United Nations projections (UNDESA, 2019). Nearly all of the population increase is in emerging market and developing economies: the population of Africa alone increases by more than 1.1 billion between 2020 and 2050.
Figure 2.1 World population by region and global GDP in the NZE
people |
10 |
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500 |
(2019) |
8 |
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400 |
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Billion |
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TrillionUSD |
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6 |
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300 |
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4 |
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200 |
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2 |
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100 |
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2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
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Rest of world
Eurasia
Middle East
North America
C & S America
Southeast Asia
Europe
Africa
India China
Global GDP (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.
By 2050, the world’s population expands to 9.7 billion people and the global economy is more than twice as large as in 2020
Notes: GDP = gross domestic product in purchasing power parity; C & S America = Central and South America. Sources: IEA analysis based on UNDESA (2019); Oxford Economics (2020); IMF (2020a, 2020b).
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The world’s economy is assumed to recover rapidly from the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic. Its size returns to pre crisis levels in 2021. From 2022, the GDP growth trend is close to the pre pandemic rate of around 3% per year on average, in line with assessments from the IMF. The response to the pandemic leads to a large increase in government debt, but resumed growth, along with low interest rates in many countries, make this manageable
in the long term. By 2030, the world’s economy is around 45% larger than in 2020, and by 2 2050 it is more than twice as large.
2.2.2Energy and CO2 prices
Projections of future energy prices are inevitably subject to a high degree of uncertainty. In IEA scenarios, they are designed to maintain an equilibrium between supply and demand. The rapid drop in oil and natural gas demand in the NZE means that no fossil fuel exploration is required and no new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those that have already been approved for development. No new coal mines or mine extensions are required either. Prices are increasingly set by the operating costs of the marginal project required to meet demand, and this results in significantly lower fossil fuel prices than in recent years. The oil price drops to around USD 35/barrel by 2030 and then drifts down slowly towards USD 25/barrel in 2050.
Table 2.1 |
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Fossil fuel prices in the NZE |
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Real terms |
(USD 2019) |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
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2040 |
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2050 |
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IEA crude oil (USD/barrel) |
91 |
37 |
35 |
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28 |
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24 |
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Natural gas (USD/MBtu) |
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United States |
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5.1 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
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2.0 |
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2.0 |
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European Union |
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8.7 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
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3.8 |
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3.5 |
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China |
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7.8 |
5.7 |
5.2 |
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4.8 |
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4.6 |
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Japan |
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12.9 |
5.7 |
4.4 |
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4.2 |
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4.1 |
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Steam coal (USD/tonne) |
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United States |
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60 |
45 |
24 |
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24 |
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22 |
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European Union |
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108 |
56 |
51 |
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48 |
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43 |
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Japan |
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125 |
75 |
57 |
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53 |
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49 |
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Coastal China |
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135 |
81 |
60 |
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54 |
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50 |
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Notes: MBtu = million British thermal units. The IEA crude oil prices are a weighted average import price among IEA member countries. Natural gas prices are weighted averages expressed on a gross calorific value basis. US natural gas prices reflect the wholesale price prevailing on the domestic market. The European Union and China gas prices reflect a balance of pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, while Japan gas prices solely reflect LNG imports. LNG prices used are those at the customs border, prior to regasification. Steam coal prices are weighted averages adjusted to 6 000 kilocalories per kilogramme. US steam coal prices reflect mine mouth price plus transport and handling cost. Coastal China steam coal price reflects a balance of imports and domestic sales, while the European Union and Japanese steam coal prices are solely for imports.
Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 |
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IEA. All rights reserved.
In line with the principle of orderly transitions governing the NZE, the trajectory for oil markets and prices avoids excessive volatility. What happens depends to a large degree on the strategies adopted by resource rich governments and their national oil companies. In the NZE it is assumed that, despite having lower cost resources at their disposal, they restrict investment in new fields. This limits the need for the shutting in and closure of higher cost production. The market share of major resource rich countries nevertheless still rises in the NZE due to the large size and slow decline rates of their existing fields.
Producer economies could pursue alternative approaches. Faced with rapidly falling oil and gas demand, they could, for example, opt to increase production so as to capture an even larger share of the market. In this event, the combination of falling demand and increased availability of low cost oil would undoubtedly lead to even lower – and probably much more volatile – prices. In practice, the options open to particular producer countries would depend on their resilience to lower oil prices and on the extent to which export markets have developed for low emissions fuels that could be produced from their natural resources.
Anticipating and mitigating feedbacks from the supply side is a central element of the discussion about orderly energy transitions. A drop in prices usually results in some rebound in demand, and policies and regulations would be essential to avoid this leading to any increase in the unabated use of fossil fuels, which would undermine wider emissions reduction efforts.
As the energy sector transforms, more fuels are traded globally, such as hydrogen based fuels and biofuels. The prices of these commodities are assumed to be set by the marginal cost of domestic production or imports within each region.
A broad range of energy policies and accompanying measures are introduced across all regions to reduce emissions in the NZE. This includes: renewable fuel mandates; efficiency standards; market reforms; research, development and deployment; and the elimination of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Direct emissions reduction regulations are also needed in some cases. In the transport sector, for example, regulations are implemented to reduce sales of internal combustion engine vehicles and increase the use of liquid biofuels and synthetic fuels in aviation and shipping, as well as measures to ensure that low oil prices do not lead to an increase in consumption.
CO2 prices are introduced across all regions in the NZE (Table 2.2). They are assumed to be introduced in the immediate future across all advanced economies for the electricity generation, industry and energy production sectors, and to rise on average to USD 130 per tonne (tCO2) by 2030 and to USD 250/tCO2 by 2050. In a number of other major economies
– including China, Brazil, Russia and South Africa – CO2 prices in these sectors are assumed to rise to around USD 200/tCO2 in 2050. CO2 prices are introduced in all other emerging market and developing economies, although it is assumed that they pursue more direct policies to adapt and transform their energy systems and so the level of CO2 prices is lower than elsewhere.
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Table 2.2 CO2 prices for electricity, industry and energy production in the NZE
USD (2019) per tonne of CO2 |
2025 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
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Advanced economies |
75 |
130 |
205 |
250 |
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Selected emerging market and |
45 |
90 |
160 |
200 |
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developing economies* |
2 |
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Other emerging market and |
3 |
15 |
35 |
55 |
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developing economies |
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* Includes China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
2.3CO2 emissions
Global energy related and industrial process CO2 emissions in the NZE fall to around 21 Gt CO2 in 2030 and to net zero in 2050 (Figure 2.2).3 CO2 emissions in advanced economies as a whole fall to net zero by around 2045 and these countries collectively remove around 0.2 Gt CO2 from the atmosphere in 2050. Emissions in several individual emerging market and developing economies also fall to net zero well before 2050, but in aggregate there are around 0.2 Gt CO2 of remaining emissions in this group of countries in 2050. These are offset by CO2 removal in advanced economies to provide net zero CO2 emissions at the global level.
Figure 2.2
Gt CO |
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30 |
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20 |
10
0102010
Global net CO2 emissions in the NZE
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capita |
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Per capitaCO emissions |
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tCO |
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3 |
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2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
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32010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
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Advanced economies |
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Emerging market and developing economies |
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IEA. All rights reserved. |
CO2 emissions fall to net zero in advanced economies around 2045 and globally by 2050. Per capita emissions globally are similar by the early-2040s.
Note: Includes CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping.
3 In the period to 2030, CO2 emissions in the NZE fall at a broadly similar rate to the P2 illustrative pathway in the IPCC SR 1.5 (IPCC, 2018). The P2 scenario is described as “a scenario with … shifts towards sustainable and healthy consumption patterns, low carbon technology innovation, and well managed land systems with limited societal acceptability for BECCS [bioenergy with carbon capture and storage]”. After 2030, emissions in the NZE fall at a much faster pace than in the P2 scenario, which has 5.6 Gt CO2 of residual energy sector and industrial process CO2 emissions remaining in 2050.
Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 |
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Several emerging market and developing economies with a very large potential for producing renewables based electricity and bioenergy are also a key source of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). This includes making use of renewable electricity sources to produce large quantities of biofuels with CCUS, some of which is exported, and to carry out direct air capture with carbon capture and storage (DACCS).
Per capita CO2 emissions in advanced economies drop from around 8 tCO2 per person in 2020 to around 3.5 tCO2 in 2030, a level close to the average in emerging market and developing economies in 2020. Per capita emissions also fall in emerging market and developing economies, but from a much lower starting point. By the early 2040s, per capita emissions in both regions are broadly similar at around 0.5 tCO2 per person.
Cumulative global energy related and industrial process CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2050 amount to just over 460 Gt in the NZE. Assuming parallel action to address CO2 emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) over the period to 2050 would result in around 40 Gt CO2 from AFOLU (see section 2.7.2). This means that total CO2 emissions from all sources – some 500 Gt CO2 – are in line with the CO2 budgets included in the IPCC SR1.5, which indicated that the total CO2 budget from 2020 consistent with providing a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 500 Gt CO2 (IPCC, 2018).4 As well as reducing CO2 emissions to net zero, the NZE seeks to reduce non CO2 emissions from the energy sector. Methane emissions from fossil fuel production and use, for example, fall from 115 million tonnes (Mt) methane in 2020 (3.5 Gt CO2 equivalent [CO2 eq])5 to 30 Mt in 2030 and 10 Mt in 2050.
The fastest and largest reductions in global emissions in the NZE are initially seen in the electricity sector (Figure 2.3). Electricity generation was the largest source of emissions in 2020, but emissions drop by nearly 60% in the period to 2030, mainly due to major reductions from coal fired power plants, and the electricity sector becomes a small net negative source of emissions around 2040. Emissions from the buildings sector fall by 40% between 2020 and 2030 thanks to a shift away from the use of fossil fuel boilers, and retrofitting the existing building stock to improve its energy performance. Emissions from industry and transport both fall by around 20% over this period, and their pace of emissions reductions accelerates during the 2030s as the roll out of low emissions fuels and other emissions reduction options is scaled up. Nonetheless, there are a number of areas in transport and industry in which it is difficult to eliminate emissions entirely – such as aviation and heavy industry – and both sectors have a small level of residual emissions in 2050. These residual emissions are offset with applications of BECCS and DACCS.
4 This budget is based on Table 2.2 of the IPCC SR1.5 (IPCC, 2018). It assumes 0.53 °C additional warming from the 2006 2015 period to give a remaining CO2 budget from 2018 of 580 Gt CO2. There were around 80 Gt CO2 emissions emitted from 2018 to 2020.
5 Non CO2 gases are converted to CO2 equivalents based on the 100 year global warming potentials reported by the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (IPCC, 2014). One tonne of methane is equivalent to 30 tonnes of CO2.
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International Energy Agency | Special Report |
Figure 2.3 Global net-CO2 emissions by sector, and gross and net CO2 emissions in the NZE
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Sector |
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Gross and net CO emissions |
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Electricity |
40 |
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Buildings |
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Gt |
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30 |
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10 |
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Transport |
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Industry |
20 |
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5 |
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Other |
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Gross CO |
10 |
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emissions |
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BECCS and |
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DACCS |
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Net CO |
10 |
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2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
emissions |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
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2010 |
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2010 |
IEA. All rights reserved.
Emissions from electricity fall fastest, with declines in industry and transport accelerating in the 2030s. Around 1.9 Gt CO2 are removed in 2050 via BECCS and DACCS.
Notes: Other = agriculture, fuel production, transformation and related process emissions, and direct air capture. BECCS = bioenergy with carbon capture and storage; DACCS = direct air capture with carbon capture and storage. BECCS and DACCS includes CO2 emissions captured and permanently stored.
The NZE includes a systematic preference for all new assets and infrastructure to be as sustainable and efficient as possible, and this accounts for 50% of total emissions reductions in 2050. Tackling emissions from existing infrastructure accounts for another 35% of reductions in 2050, while behavioural changes and avoided demand, including materials efficiency6 gains and modal shifts in the transport sector, provide the remaining 15% of emissions reductions (see section 2.5.2). A wide range of technologies and measures are deployed in the NZE to reduce emissions from existing infrastructure such as power plants, industrial facilities, buildings, networks, equipment and appliances. The NZE is designed to minimise stranded capital where possible, i.e. cases where the initial investment is not recouped, but in many cases early retirements or lower utilisation lead to stranded value, i.e. a reduction in revenue.
The rapid deployment of more energy efficient technologies, electrification of end uses and swift growth of renewables all play a central part in reducing emissions across all sectors in the NZE (Figure 2.4). By 2050, nearly 90% of all electricity generation is from renewables, as is around 25% of non electric energy use in industry and buildings. There is also a major role for emerging fuels and technologies, notably hydrogen and hydrogen based fuels, bioenergy and CCUS, especially in sectors where emissions are often most challenging to reduce.
6 Materials efficiency includes strategies that reduce material demand, or shift to the use of lower emissions materials or lower emissions production routes. Examples include lightweighting and recycling.
Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 |
55 |
2
IEA. All rights reserved.
Figure 2.4 Average annual CO2 reductions from 2020 in the NZE
Gt CO2
20 |
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Activity |
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Behaviour and avoided demand |
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Energy supply efficiency |
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Buildings efficiency |
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Transport efficiency |
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Electric vehicles |
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20 |
Other electrification |
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Hydrogen |
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Wind and solar |
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Transport biofuels |
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40 |
Other renewables |
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Other power |
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CCUS industry |
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60 |
CCUS power and fuel supply |
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2021 25 2026 30 2031 35 2036 40 2041 45 2046 50 |
Net emissions reduction |
IEA. All rights reserved.
Renewables and electrification make the largest contribution to emissions reductions, but a wide range of measures and technologies are needed to achieve net-zero emissions
Notes: Activity = changes in energy service demand from economic and population growth. Behaviour = change in energy service demand from user decisions, e.g. changing heating temperatures. Avoided demand = change in energy service demand from technology developments, e.g. digitalisation.
2.4Total energy supply and final energy consumption
2.4.1Total energy supply7
Total energy supply falls to 550 exajoules (EJ) in 2030, 7% lower than in 2020 (Figure 2.5). This occurs despite significant increases in the global population and economy because of a fall in energy intensity (the amount of energy used to generate a unit of GDP). Energy intensity falls by 4% on average each year between 2020 and 2030. This is achieved through a combination of electrification, a push to pursue all energy and materials efficiency opportunities, behavioural changes that reduce demand for energy services, and a major shift away from the traditional use of bioenergy.8 This level of improvement in energy intensity is much greater than has been achieved in recent years: between 2010 and 2020, average annual energy intensity fell by less then 2% each year.
After 2030, continuing electrification of end use sectors helps to reduce energy intensity further, but the emphasis on maximising energy efficiency improvements in the years up to
7 The terms total primary energy supply (TPES) or total primary energy demand (TPED) have been renamed as total energy supply (TES) in accordance with the International Recommendations for Energy Statistics (IEA, 2020a).
8 Modern forms of cooking require much less energy than the traditional use of biomass in inefficient stoves. For example, cooking with a liquefied petroleum gas stove uses around five times less energy than the traditional use of biomass.
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International Energy Agency | Special Report |
2030 limits the available opportunities in later years. At the same time, increasing production of new fuels, such as advanced biofuels, hydrogen and synthetic fuels, tends to push up energy use. As a result, the rate of decline in energy intensity between 2030 and 2050 slows to 2.7% per year. With continued economic and population growth, this means that total energy supply falls slightly between 2030 and 2040 but then remains broadly flat to 2050.
Total energy supply in 2050 in the NZE is close to the level in 2010, despite a global population 2 that is nearly 3 billion people higher and a global economy that is over three times larger.
Figure 2.5 Total energy supply in the NZE
EJ |
600 |
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500
400
300
200
100
Other
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Traditional use of biomass
Modern gaseous bioenergy
Modern liquid bioenergy
Modern solid bioenergy
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil Coal
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
IEA. All rights reserved.
Renewables and nuclear power displace most fossil fuel use in the NZE, and the share of fossil fuels falls from 80% in 2020 to just over 20% in 2050
The energy mix in 2050 in the NZE is much more diverse than today. In 2020, oil provided 30% of total energy supply, while coal supplied 26% and natural gas 23%. In 2050, renewables provide two thirds of energy use, split between bioenergy, wind, solar, hydroelectricity and geothermal (Figure 2.6). There is also a large increase in energy supply from nuclear power, which nearly doubles between 2020 and 2050.
There are large reductions in the use of fossil fuels in the NZE. As a share of total energy supply, they fall from 80% in 2020 to just over 20% in 2050. However, their use does not fall to zero in 2050: significant amounts are still used in producing non energy goods, in plants with CCUS, and in sectors where emissions are especially hard to abate such as heavy industry and long distance transport. All remaining emissions in 2050 are offset by negative emissions elsewhere (Box 2.2). Coal use falls from 5 250 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2020 to 2 500 Mtce in 2030 and to less than 600 Mtce in 2050 – an average annual decline of 7% each year from 2020 to 2050. Oil demand dropped below 90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2020 and demand does not return to its 2019 peak: it falls to 72 mb/d in 2030 and 24 mb/d in 2050 – an annual average decline of more than 4% from 2020 to 2050. Natural gas use dropped to 3 900 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2020, but exceeds its previous
Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 |
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IEA. All rights reserved.
2019 peak in the mid 2020s before starting to decline as it is phased out in the electricity sector. Natural gas use declines to 3 700 bcm in 2030 and 1 750 bcm in 2050 – an annual average decline of just under 3% from 2020 to 2050.
Figure 2.6
EJ |
600 |
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500
400
300
200
100
Total energy supply of unabated fossil fuels and low-emissions energy sources in the NZE
Unabated fossilfuels |
Low emissions |
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Traditional use of biomass
Modern bioenergy
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil Coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 |
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 |
IEA. All rights reserved.
Some fossil fuels are still used in 2050 in the production of non-energy goods, in plants equipped with CCUS, and in sectors where emissions are hard to abate
Note: Low emissions includes the use of fossil fuels with CCUS and in non energy uses.
Box 2.2 Why does fossil fuel use not fall to zero in 2050 in the NZE?
In total, around 120 EJ of fossil fuels is consumed in 2050 in the NZE relative to 460 EJ in 2020. Three main reasons underlie why fossil fuel use does not fall to zero in 2050, even though the energy sector emits no CO2 on a net basis:
Use for non energy purposes. More than 30% of total fossil fuel use in 2050 in the NZE – including 70% of oil use – is in applications where the fuels are not combusted and so do not result in any direct CO2 emissions (Figure 2.7). Examples include use as chemical feedstocks and in lubricants, paraffin waxes and asphalt. There are major efforts to limit fossil fuel use in these applications in the NZE, for instance global plastic collection rates for recycling rising from 15% in 2020 to 55% in 2050, but fossil fuel use in non energy applications still rises slightly to 2050.
UsewithCCUS.Around half of fossil fuel use in 2050 is in plants equipped with CCUS
(around 3.5 Gt CO2 emissions are captured from fossil fuels in 2050). Around 925 bcm of natural gas is converted to hydrogen with CCUS. In addition, around
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470 Mtce of coal and 225 bcm of natural gas are used with CCUS in the electricity |
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and industrial sectors, mainly to extend the operations of young facilities and reduce |
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stranded assets. |
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International Energy Agency | Special Report |
Use in sectors where technology options are scarce. The remaining 20% of fossil
fuel use in 2050 in the NZE is in sectors where the complete elimination of emissions |
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is particularly challenging. Mostly this is oil, as it continues to fuel aviation in |
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particular. A small amount of unabated coal and natural gas are used in industry and |
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in the production of energy. The unabated use of fossil fuel results in around |
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1.7 Gt CO2 emissions in 2050, which are fully offset by BECCS and DACCS. |
Figure 2.7 Fossil fuel use and share by sector in 2050 in the NZE
EJ
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Coal |
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80% |
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Share of sector |
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Non combustion |
Energy production |
Industry |
Power |
Transport |
Buildings |
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total (right axis) |
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IEA. All rights reserved.
More than 30% of fossil fuel use in 2050 is not combusted and so does not result in direct CO2 emissions, around 50% is paired with CCUS
Notes: Non combustion includes use for non emitting, non energy purposes such as petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and asphalt. Energy production includes fuel use for direct air capture.
Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels continue to play an important role in the NZE, which sees large increases in bioenergy and hydrogen (Figure 2.8). Around 40% of bioenergy used today is for the traditional use of biomass in cooking: this is rapidly phased out in the NZE. Modern forms of solid biomass, which can be used to reduce emissions in both the electricity and industry sectors, rise from 32 EJ in 2020 to 55 EJ in 2030 and 75 EJ in 2050, offsetting a large portion of a drop in coal demand. The use of low emissions liquid fuels, such as ammonia, synthetic fuels and liquid biofuels, increases from 3.5 EJ (1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [mboe/d]) in 2020 to just above 25 EJ (12.5 mboe/d) in 2050. The supply of low emissions gases, such as hydrogen, synthetic methane, biogas and biomethane rises from 2 EJ in 2020 to 17 EJ in 2030 and 50 EJ in 2050. The increase in gaseous hydrogen production between 2020 and 2030 in the NZE is twice as fast as the fastest ten year increase in shale gas production in the United States.
Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050
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IEA. All rights reserved.